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Feb 4 15 12:10 PM
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Another meteorologist indicated we would get snow from Sunday through the middle of next week. There may be some breaks in-between the snowfalls but it will continue. We shall see. Hopefully it goes out to sea.
METEOROLOGIST JOE CIOFFI WEATHER FORECASTS
ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING LIGHT SNOWS THURSDAY
THEN MORE SNOW/ICE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
The movement into February continues and now that we have gotten away from that annual rodent glorification day, we can pay attention to a lot of things going on in the atmosphere. Everything seems to point to a dynamic pattern that is setting up for the Northeast. So far anyone north of roughly 40N Latitude has seen some substantial snow and ice and as we move north into Southern New England we have seen record snows over very short periods of time.
First off we have tonight into Thursday morning. Some places today will see 40 degrees which is nice and it least gives you the chance to clear the ice. Then an arctic front approaches and a wave rides along it as it comes up from the south. The ocean moisture never really gets involved but the Arctic front seems to be getting a little enhancement and the short range models are picking up on this.
This it the morning run of the Nam model which as the arctic front just offshore by morning with a stick of snow on it. The wave to the south is weak and that moisture is offshore. The snow accumulation map is a great illustration of the mountains in Pennsylvania and how they block snow from coming east. You see that little finger of a dry hole that sticks into central Pennsylvania. In fact you can see the outline of the western ridge of the Appalachians all the way down into West Virginia!
Im not expecting much from this as there isn't really a lot to work with here. Sometimes arctic fronts can get enhanced a bit as they near the coast. We had 2 instances of that earlier this month. So Im basically thinking for most areas it would be a coating to at most an inch. Best chances of something more..on the order of 2 or even 3that would be in Northwest New Jersey, Northeast Pennsylvania northeast into the Catskills.
Once that goes by it turns very cold again as we head into the weekend and then another arctic front approaches however this time it has a bit of a different flavor to it.
The mid run gfs last night continues the trend of the prior runs and is in line to a large degree with the European and Canadian. All the models begin to set up what appears to be a long duration event of some kind..or perhaps a couple of events with some short drying in between. This is going to be a classic case of overrunning at least when it comes to Sunday into Sunday night. You don't necessarily need a deep low pressure system to get some accumulation snow. In fact the entire winter of 2002-2003 was nothing but a series of overrunning events with no really intense storms. Big cold high to the north plus a long easterly fetch of moisture and then just enough of a weak wave to the south to sort of stir the pot and you can get things going. It is going to be an interesting week coming up . Models try to make something bigger out of the last wave in this series for the middle of next week. Im not sure yet how this plays. But we do need to stay tuned.
By the way at this point we would want to say that Dr Judah Cohen who as you know I have put posts up about his research regarding October Siberian rate of snow cover growth in Eurasia and the link to colder and snowier winters in the east. Right now his forecast at least north of 40N is looking pretty good. (I know South Jersey, SE PA, to DCA. You are still waiting! For those of you who are not familiar with this or are new to the page and weather, here is a video I did about it last October which explains it
For all the latest on Winter Storm Watches and Warnings along with snow forecast maps go to the snowforecasts page.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=CxPlgJohpvw
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